Big Decision for Pakistan's Prime Minister: Who Heads Coup-Prone Army - Wall Street Journal

ISLAMABAD—Pakistan's new leader will soon have to make what could be the most important decision of his tenure in the coup-prone country: the selection of a new army chief. Nawaz Sharif, elected as prime minister in May, clashed with three army chiefs in his previous two stints in office. Army pressure led to the premature termination of his first term. The second ended in an outright coup in 1999. Pakistan has been on a path of transition to democracy since an elected government was restored in 2008, and the current army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, has won praise at home and abroad for allowing the democratic experiment to continue. Gen. Kayani has signaled his preferred choice of successor is Lt. Gen. Rashad Mahmood, the current chief of general staff, analysts and retired senior army officers say. But Mr. Sharif, who won a parliamentary majority in a stronger-than-expected showing in elections, has made clear he is determined to assert civilian authority. This could mean going against Gen. Kayani's pick. "This all revolves around one issue: Who runs the country? If a prime minister really wants to run the country, he must pick the best man for the job, even if he has to go down the line of seniority," said Shaukat Qadir, a retired brigadier general. Mr. Sharif has stated that he learned from the "mistakes" of the past in selecting army chiefs. As prime minister in October 1998, he disregarded seniority and picked the third-most-senior general, Pervez Musharraf, who was considered weak. A year later, Gen Musharraf removed Mr. Sharif, threw him in jail and took power himself. Back in the 1970s, Pakistan's first elected prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, also reached down the ranks of seniority to go for an apparently humble general with little ambition, Zia-ul-Haq. The general later ousted Mr. Bhutto and hanged him. "We don't wish to repeat history," said Pervaiz Rasheed, the government's information minister. "According to the books, whoever is the senior-most will be appointed." Before Gen. Kayani retires in November, another position, that of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, opens in October. It is technically the most senior military job, but in reality is a ceremonial post with little sway. If the joint chiefs post stays with the army, then analysts believe it would go to Lt. Gen. Haroon Aslam, the most senior army general after Gen. Kayani. This would allow Lt. Gen. Mahmood, second in line to scoop the army chief job. A spokesman for the military declined to comment on the coming leadership changes. Speaking for the government, Mr. Rasheed said, "We don't want to make this a subject of debate in newspapers." Nuclear-armed Pakistan has the seventh-largest army in the world. The cycles of military takeovers and weak civilian governments have made Pakistan unstable. Its unchecked military has supported some jihadist groups, in a threat to the region. The new army chief will have to decide whether to push the government toward military action in North Waziristan, part of Pakistan's tribal area, which is a sanctuary for al Qaeda and Taliban extremists, a move the U.S. has long sought. Diplomats say that Gen. Kayani belatedly made the case for an offensive in North Waziristan last year, but by then the election was nearing. Pakistan's generals have long dominated the country, either ruling directly or controlling events from military headquarters in Rawalpindi, a garrison town adjacent to the capital, Islamabad. Like Egypt, where the army ousted the elected government last month, Pakistan's top brass has garnered support and aid from the U.S. for decades. Its generals enjoy similarly lavish lifestyles in service and retirement, while the military has extensive business interests. The military's business empire extends from trucking businesses to cement and fertilizer production, to banking, schools and engineering. It even makes corn flakes. The armed forces are also the largest residential property developer in the country."Each of them is qualified to be chief of army staff," said Ikram Sehgal, a former brigadier general. "Let's go strictly on seniority. If you go back and forth, it disturbs the system." Like Egypt's military, the Pakistani army believes that it is the ultimate determiner of the national interest, although in Pakistan's case, the military has been a force for the Islamization of society, not secularism. The believed front-runner for the army chief job, Lt. Gen. Mahmood, was appointed early this year as chief of general staff. He is in charge of operations and intelligence, a grooming position for the top slot. Lt Gen. Mahmood formerly held the prized job of Corps Commander in Lahore and was previously head of counterterrorism at the Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency. The posting at Lahore, capital of Pakistan's largest province Punjab, brought him into regular contact with Mr. Sharif and his younger brother, Shahbaz Sharif, Punjab's chief minister. The only more senior contender for the army chief job this fall will be Lt. Gen. Aslam, the current chief of logistics. During the 2009 operation to win back the Swat Valley from Taliban control, he personally led an airborne assault on the militant stronghold of Peochar. He previously headed an important corps at Bahawalpur and the Special Services Group commando unit. One retired general said Lt. Gen. Aslam was known for an appreciation of the political constraints that limit the actions of civilian governments, a trait unusual for a general. Ahead of Gen. Kayani's retirement, the army will send the prime minister a list of three names, typically the three most senior generals, though he is free to appoint any other general, officials said. Number three in the ranks in November would be Lt Gen. Raheel Sharif—not a relative—who is the former Gujranwala corps commander. Seniority is measured from the time a young officer graduates from military academy. Write to Saeed Shah at saeed.shah@wsj.com via Top Stories - Google News http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&fd=R&usg=AFQjCNHl6Q_O7dtbaFrsfwe0UxPMKdRxhA&url=http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-298572/

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