There is always a danger of reading too much – or too little – into byelection results. So one has to be careful about rushing to quick judgments about the results that came in from Bihar (where the Lalu Prasad-Nitish Kumar has won six out of 10 seats, four at the cost of BJP), Karnataka (where the BJP has ceded one seat to Congress), Madhya Pradesh (where too the Congress has wrested one from BJP). It is only in Punjab that the scores are even between the Akali-BJP combine and Congress (one each).
The right things to conclude are the following:
One, voting in the state assemblies may not follow trends in the Lok Sabha elections, where the issues were completely different and Narendra Modi was a deciding factor for marginal voters. In state assembly polls, people are not voting for Modi. They are voting on local issues, for local leaders.
RJD chief Lalu Prasad. PTI
Two, the BJP's losses – in Bihar, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh – can thus be read as the end of wave-like conditions that prevailed in May 2014. It is also about people wanting to ensure that there is a strong opposition to the BJP in states.
Three, the four state assembly elections due this year – to Maharashtra, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand – will need re-strategising on the part of the BJP based on local factors. The party cannot merely count on Modi's charisma to pull ahead. Delhi, too, will need a completely new gameplan. The aura of the Lok Sabha win will not carry the BJP through. It also means the BJP should not be overly optimistic of making big gains by going it alone. It needs allies as much as its allies need it.
Four, however, to conclude the opposite – that the BJP's ride is over – would also be a mistake. A byelection is not the same as an election that will decide who will form the next government. In Bihar, the Lalu-Nitish-Congress alliance of convenience has won the day, but the war is ahead. The alliance will have to stay together all through the coming year-and-a-half, when the state government will also be battling anti-incumbency factors. It is one thing to band together for winning byelections that will not change the state government, quite another to work together to form the next government.
Five, despite the psychological dent, the BJP's hold at the Centre is not in doubt. Reason: in a recent poll conducted by Hansa Research for India Today in the first half of August, the NDA is actually shown gaining in strength, with its seat count rising from 335 to 354. The BJP itself is expected to win 314 seats, up from the 282 it won in May 2014. Once again, this proves that national elections are different from local assembly ones.
That said, it is time to look at who the real winners and losers are after this round of byelections. (More are to come in Uttar Pradesh and other states.
The biggest loser is actually Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United). It is clear that by aligning with Lalu Prasad, he has sacrificed his own image as a development and governance messiah. He had to make peace with Lalu in order to keep the Modi-led BJP at bay in Bihar after the Lok Sabha debacle. He also had to sacrifice his chief ministership. Since there is no chance that he will be CM even if the combine wins the next assembly polls, Nitish Kumar is clearly the loser. It is highly unlikely that Nitish will be allowed to become CM next year as long as Lalu is his partner.
The biggest winner is, conversely, Lalu Prasad, who now looks like the man who can take on Modi, forcing a bitter rival like Nitish to come onto his platform.
The other big gainer is Karnataka Chief Minister Siddharamaiah, who has regained his winning streak. If he lost the Lok Sabha elections badly to the BJP, he has gained by wresting one seat from the party in the bypolls. This will strengthen his hands in the state, and the party high command will not want to unsettle him by lending dissidents an attentive ear.
The Congress is a small gainer in Madhya Pradesh, but this is not surprising, since the huge majority won by Shivraj Singh Chauhan in December last year was an exceptional one – and one unlikely to be sustained. Chauhan's image was also dented by the recent professional examination board recruitment scam. Chauhan is a small loser, but he has time on his side to live it down before the next big electoral challenge.
The BJP has clearly lost some of its sheen by its underwhelming show in three states. This may not have a long-term impact, but there are at least two potential gainers from its discomfiture.
The Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, with whom the BJP is in a tussle for more seats, can now legitimately claim that the Lok Sabha results are not an indication of the BJP's strength in the state.
The BJP's losses in Bihar will improve the bargaining power of not only the Shiv Sena, but also the Haryana Janhit Congress (or the INLD, in case the Janhit alliance is dumped) and that of potential allies in Jharkhand.
The BJP's allies at the centre will also feel emboldened about demanding more cabinet or ministerial berths.
Another gainer from this poll could be Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party, which might see in this the chance for its own comeback in Delhi.
The takeout is simple: the BJP cannot afford to rest on its Lok Sabha laurels. It has to get its act together in each state, and each constituency each time.
Party president Amit Shah has his work cut out. There is not going to be any easy walkover in future state elections.
The biggest message is probably for Modi: he has time on his side, but he has to choose his areas of political and economic impact quickly and start delivering on them. He also needs to spend more time with allies so that they don't start plotting their own strategies.
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