The Grand Alliance victory in the by polls to ten seats has proved one thing: Neither of the sides which went into battle need lose hope, nor can they afford to gloat yet.
The odds of either side making it good in assembly elections in 2015 is even at this point. At the same time, neither the alliance, nor the NDA can take the voters for granted.
It also proved that the aggression of voters seen in the Lok Sabha polls, which benefited the BJP, has run its course and while the Narendra Modi steam has dissipated, the 'defanged' electorate is back to basics, weighing state concerns more than the national.
It also underlined, that when it comes to charisma, Bihar BJP leaders, individually, or collectively cannot match Lalu Prasad of RJD and JD-U leader Nitish Kumar on even terms
More than the communal versus secular issue, which the alliance and the NDA played up respectively, it was reinforced beyond doubt that when it comes to a largely rural vote, caste configurations and fine tuning selection of candidates, matter.
Also, there is the clear indication that the electorate weighed Nitish Kumar, finally, for his own worth and held his state development agenda to be of more importance. Notwithstanding, the overpowering presence of Lalu Prasad, fodder scam 'convict', the fact that the latter 'cannot' fight the elections himself, cancelled out the 'fear factor' in larger quarters.
While the by poll has re-established Lalu Prasad as a mass leader, the promise of development comes from Nitish Kumar's presence, and re-establishes the latter as the natural leader of JD-U for the polls in 2015, especially when the projection of Jitan Ram Manjhi as chief minister proved to be little help in turning the tide for the alliance in scheduled caste dominated constituencies, such as Mohania.
There are several other important political pointers for assembly elections 2015.
For one, the certainty of the Grand Alliance being reconfigured on a much wider scale to accommodate the entire Left spectrum , minus the CPI-ML, is now a given, the by poll proved that neither the Left, nor even the Congress were more than marginalised club of politicians with little clout.
Though the Congress was able to exorcise the host of 1989 Bhagalpur riots and wrest the seat from the BJP, which had dominated it for 28 years, it was not because of itself.
Lalu Prasad's RJD voters helped Congress to punch much above itself, and the absence of BJP stalwart, Shahnawaz Hussein prevented a split in Muslim votes. The Congress won with 19000+ votes in the same geographical constituency, in which Hussein had led by 33000 votes at LS time!
On the other hand, the combined Left grouping of CPI-M, CPI and CPI-ML, which fought on 9 of 10 seats, lost all and cannot hope to be a meaningful addition to the grand alliance but marginally in some segments.
The wins secured by the Grand Alliance combine were by thumping margins in mosts seats-at Parbatta, Chapra, Bhagalpur, to name a few, while the BJP wins were narrow, especially in Ram Vilas Paswan's turf of Hajipur.
This will be a source of concern to the BJP, since the Grand Alliance had been formed just 27 days back and it could rise to formidable levels by October 2015, when elections are due.
The pronounced alliance win in Parbatta and Mohiuddinnagar and the small win in Hajipur, has also underlined the limits of Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP, whose caste dominates these constituencies. While proving that the Modi wave helped him most in Lok Sabha polls, the results point to erosion of his credibility and places limit on profits, which BJP can wrest in an alliance with him in 2015.
The BJP cannot also claim the Narkatiaganj victory as its very own for the fact that a personal political legacy helped its candidate Rashmi Verma, earlier touted as a JD-U candidate, to win. Verma could have won from any platform on the goodwill for her late husband, Alok Verma, a politician.
For the grand alliance, however, the win on six seats helps in many ways.
Both the RJD and the JD-U can cap dissension, deal strictly with fence sitters and rein in party hoppers, who had been blackmailing them with threats of joining the BJP. With enhanced numerical strength in the assembly, the alliance has been able to stabilise itself too.
What is more, the Bihar alliance model, could be taken onto the national stage with more conviction and could prove to be the hub for anti-BJP groups to rally around, especially with assembly elections in many states scheduled between now and next year.
On the other hand, the BJP could face challenges to leadership over the losses, where the Alliance enhanced its seats by 4, while BJP lost 2. The final tally of 6 seats to the alliance against BJP's 4, though not numerically much, points out that RJD-JD(U) ploy of slamming and pooling their base votes worked eminently and could work again.
The RJD stays 'Bade Bhai' in the re-worked configuration winning 3 of 4 seats contested with Chottey Bhai JD-U winning 2 out of 4 and Congress winning 1 out of 2.
The by poll results have proved that while the Bihar vote to Modi was for a stable, corruption free government at the Centre, Nitish Kumar's development model with inclusion of all groups, is the model that has more chances of succeeding at the state level.
On the other hand, it also reinforced, that caste can never be resigned to the dust bin in Bihar and the parties/group, which choose candidates better by caste, win.
While BJP state president, Mangal Pandey said, the loss of two seats was marginal given that the BJP alone took the field against three formidable parties together, RJD spokesman, KC Tyagi claimed, that with the secular vote arrested from scattering, the opposition to NDA had created a fresh level playing field in Bihar.
Nitish Kumar, JD-U leader, claimed the win as a 'decisive mandate' against divisive policies and a mandate, which is pro-development and for communal peace and inclusion.
What alliance win means
The Narendra Modi wave was worked by the candidates individual brilliance and angst of people against stagnancy and corruption and fought on national plane.
Bihar had voted over national issues in Lok Sabha, but in assembly polls, development is an agenda , which cannot be overlooked by any group.
The rural vote also goes by caste and the party with a more fine tuned caste configuration tends to win; the BJP loss in Chapra exemplying it more clearly.
Lalu Prasad's charisma is unchallenged. The surety of Prasad's absence from government, makes Nitish Kumar the undisputed leader and vote catcher for development.
For the grand alliance
It needs to work further on fine tuning candidate selections given that it is proven that non-BJP votes together could ensure a safe mandate post 2015 elections.
Lalu Prasad despite not fighting elections would remain the Bade Bhai, 'elder politician' in such a combination, which could be stabler due to multi-caste support.
Stalls dissensions and blackmailing by fence sitters who threaten to go over to the BJP and pull down the government. Weeding out of 'undesirables' a certainty
Bringing in the Left would widen the base of grand alliance, though the Left has lost all seats, while the Congress won with JD-U, RJD support base.
For the NDA combine
Need to widen social base, convince Bihar of a pro-active, pro-development plank and find right candidates to take on the Grand Alliance in 2015 polls.
Could suffer from leadership challenges. Adjusting rebels from other groups in its line-up could turn out to be risky and dangerous choice.
Polarisation of voters on religious lines may not work for the party in a highly caste ridden state, would have to depend on charismatic leaders from outside.
Would have to work to deliver special state status, get on with pending Centrally financed schemes, improve aid and grants flow to claim advantage in 2015.
Also read: Lalu-Nitish magic works in Bihar bypolls, tough times ahead for BJP
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