7.00 pm: Axis exit poll says AAP will get 53 seats
The Axis exit poll seems to have thrown all caution to the winds. it has predicted a massive 53 seats for AAP, to the 17 by the BJP. The Congress, will only manage 0-2 seats.
The Axis poll is clearly the outlier here. Will it get it horribly wrong, or will it be the only one that gets the numbers right?
We may get a better idea from the updated exit polls, which will factor in the last three hours of polling and which are expected to be released by 8pm.
6.56 pm: More good news for AAP from News Nation exit poll
If ABP-Nielsen gives AAP reason to celebrate then News Nation should send them over the edge in delirious happiness. The exit polling as of 3pm has given AAP a massive 39-43 seats, to the BJP's 25 - 29 seats. The Congress, which really has become the 'also ran' of this election is predicted to win just 1 to 3 seats.
Good news for Kejriwal: PTI
6.50 pm: Has AAP emerged as a local powerhouse in Delhi?
If the numbers are right, does this mean that AAP has emerged as a Delhi local powerhouse? The Headlines Today panel is making a comparison to the Shiv Sena in Delhi, which until late last year was always recognised by the BJP as being the senior poll partner. Does this explain the Kejriwal CM, Modi PM attitude that seems to be prevalent in Delhi?
Firstpost editor Sandipan Sharma called this the desire of the voter to have a ladoo in both their hands. He wrote:
The noise in the media and the bytes from politicians may delude us into believing that the Delhi election is a contest between Modi and Kejriwal. But if you go out in the streets, it would be clear that the Delhi voters want ladoo in both hands.
Delhi isn't India; it is a city state. The problems people face here are related to their day-to-day life. Water, electricity, hospitals, traffic, schools and thugs in uniform seeking bribes and hafta are their major concerns. While choosing a chief minister, they are looking at somebody who has solutions to these problems; somebody who can make their life better.
In contrast, when they voted for Modi, voters were looking for a PM who would ensure vikas, get foreign investments, tame hostile neighbours and get rid of the corrupt and incompetent Congress misrule. It is another matter that Modi volunteered to pick up the broom; but in their minds voters had assigned that task to the jhadoo party.
If you look at the 2013 election and the ongoing Delhi polls, the pattern becomes clear. Back then nearly a third of Delhi voters were with the BJP; in this election too the saffron vote share is likely to be around 35 per cent according to opinion polls.
If the opinion polls have got it right, some of the additional 13 percent people who voted for Modi in the Lok Sabha polls are now thinking of giving the Kejriwal model a chance because they find him more suitable for the CM's job.
6.42 pm: ABP-Nielsen says AAP will win 39 seats
The ABP poll has shown a much more comfortable victory for AAP. Its own numbers as of 3pm show that AAP has a voteshare percentage of 37 percent to the 32 percent of the BJP. The Congress is down to 19 percent.
In terms of seats, ABP-Nielsen has predicted 39 seats for AAP, 28 seats for the BJP and 3 for Congress.
6.39 pm: C-Voter shows BJP - AAP are neck and neck
The C-voter exit poll as of 3pm shows that this election is literally getting too close to call. AAP is in the lead with an estimated 42 percent of the vote share, but the BJP is snapping at its heels with 40 percent of the voteshare.
The Congress is a distant third with a projected 11 percent of the voteshare.
6.32 pm: India Today- Cicero poll shows BJP is closing the gap
The India Today - Cicero Exit poll as of 3pm has seen AAP with 41 percent of the voteshare, BJP witn 37 percent, and 15 percent for the Congress. This is a significant improvement on initial projections on the BJP performance.
However there has been unprecedented voter turnout in Delhi, so these numbers could be very far from the final numbers. It all depends on who the final surge of voters picked. The Headlines Today team will give an updated exit polls at 8pm.
6.30 pm: Has BJP made a comeback or will AAP take Delhi?
Much ado has been made of the opinion polls coming out of Delhi which have indicated that the Modi wave may have stopped short in the National Capital region. A number of key opinion polls, including those conducted by ABP-Nielsen, IMRB- The Week, Cfore - Hindustan Times and India Today - Cicero.
Who has Delhi picked this election? PTI
Of the eight pollsters, six are fairly well known, while two others are relatively unknown. They are Nielsen (which did a survey for ABP News), IMRB (The Week), Cfore (Hindustan Times), TNS (Economic Times), Cicero (India Today), CVoter, 5Forty3, and an relatively unknown data analytics firm called Data Mineria.
The outlier poll, which gave AAP a huge win in the range of 38-46 seats, is Cicero, followed by TNS (36-40), and Nielsen (35). HT-Cfore, as we noted before, gave both parties seats in the range of 31-36 seats. In other words, either of them could win or ensure a draw.
The pollsters who give the BJP a win are 5Forty3, which gives the BJP a clean 40 seats (but nowhere near Amit Shah's targeted two-thirds majority) and is clearly the outlier, followed by CVoter (37), and IMRB and Data Mineria (both 36). Thirty-five is the half-way mark, and 36 is the number needed by a party to be in a majority in the 70-member Delhi assembly.
Here is a look at voteshare predicted in all the opinion polls so far:
ABP-Nielsen's pre-poll survey vote shares: Delhi elections 2015
HT-Cfore's pre-poll survey vote shares: Delhi elections 2015
India-Today Cicero's pre-poll survey vote shares: Delhi elections 2015
5Forty3's pre-poll survey vote shares: Delhi elections 2015
So will the exit polls confirm these numbers, or will we see something radically different? Stay tuned!
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