The AAP was ahead of its rivals and had the most chances of taking power in Delhi, exit polls said on Saturday evening after assembly elections in the national capital ended with a record voter turnout of 67.08%.
A defeat for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP in Delhi would harm his chances of consolidating power in Parliament, where his reform agenda is being thwarted. Modi needs to win most of the state elections over the next four years to gain control of both Houses of Parliament to deliver on his promise of jobs and economic growth.
The ABP-Nielsen survey gave the Aam Aadmi Party 43 seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party 26 seats. Any party will need at least 36 seats to form a government in Delhi.
The Times Now-C-Voter survey said the AAP was poised to win 31-39 seats and the BJP 27-35.
The India Today-Cicero put the AAP tally at 35-43 seats and of the BJP at 23-29.
The NDTV survey said the AAP could win 38 seats and the BJP 29.
The Axis-APM poll, however, credited 53 seats to the AAP and 17 to the BJP.
All five exit polls put the Congress at a distant third, giving the party zero to a maximum of four seats.
Today's Chanakya also said that all social classes in the capital - Dalits, Muslims, Brahmins, OBCs, Banias and Punjabis - had voted more for the AAP.
The percentage of Muslims voting for the AAP was as high as 71%.
The AAP and the BJP were widely seen as the principal contenders for power in Delhi.
After the exit polls predicted an AAP victory, party leader Arvind Kejriwal thanked the people of the city for voting for his party in large numbers. "My gratitude 2 Delhiites for their support," he tweeted. "(You are) so amazing. (You) rejected politics of caste and religion. Hope final results (are) as per exit polls." He also congratulated all "selfless volunteers of the AAP who worked round the clock for their country. AAP is bcoz of u."
Elections took place in Delhi after over a year. An AAP government led by Kejriwal had stepped down from office in February 2014 after being in power for just 49 days.
The voting followed a bitter campaign that was marked by the BJP and AAP trading accusations on a variety of issues, ranging from funding from dubious firms to Kejriwal's party to an advertisement issued by the BJP that caricatured Kejriwal and contained a reference to his caste that the AAP deemed derogatory.
The BJP, which has been out of power in the national capital for 16 years, initially banked on the "Modi wave" to carry it to power in the Delhi assembly but later roped in former IPS officer Kiran Bedi and named her as its chief ministerial candidate.
The AAP, which had been under a cloud after Kejriwal quit as chief minister in February last year when he failed to push through an anti-corruption law, surged back into the reckoning by appealing to youngsters and the middle class.
Observers have described the Delhi assembly polls as a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but this has been rejected by the BJP.
The campaign by the Congress, which ruled for 15 years in Delhi before losing to the AAP in polls in 2013, was lacklustre and the party was banking on its traditional vote banks to maintain some sort of political presence in the city.
The political temperature shot up on the polling day after Kejriwal alleged a certain party distributed liquor and cash a day ahead of polling. Minutes later, he tweeted: "BJP candidate from Mangolpuri arrested for carrying liquor bottles in his car? Shudn't his candidature be cancelled? (sic)".
Kejriwal also sought the election commission's intervention over polling being "slowed down" in many places, which he said had resulted in voters returning without casting their vote.
"As per rules, 3 voters r allowed inside booth at a time. They r allowing only 1 voter, which has slowed down voting... Even lunch breaks being taken which is against rules. EC shud (sic) immediately intervene," he tweeted.
Allegations flew thick and fast from the BJP camp as well. Bedi, alleged AAP workers in Krishna Nagar - a BJP bastion and her constituency - were forcing people not to vote for the BJP.
"Media is reporting selectively… if the media is fair they must report this incident."
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